Recent on‑chain analytics reveal a stark contraction in XRP activity, underscoring mounting pressure on holders and a broader downturn in the token’s ecosystem. Even as XRP trades above its 2024 highs, key metrics such as transaction demand, realized profitability, and fee income have all fallen dramatically, signaling a potential capitulation wave among long‑term investors.
Glassnode’s latest dataset shows the 90‑day simple moving average of XRP’s Realized Profit‑to‑Loss Ratio has collapsed to 0.38. In practical terms, for every dollar of on‑chain losses, holders are realizing only 38 cents of profit. Historically, a ratio above 1.0 indicates net profit‑taking, while bull markets routinely push the ratio into double‑digit territory. The current figure—well below the breakeven point—suggests that loss‑taking dominates, a hallmark of capitulation periods when a large portion of the network’s supply is being liquidated at a loss.
In addition to profitability, overall network activity has deteriorated sharply. The 90‑day moving average of total transaction fees on the XRP Ledger dropped from 5,900 XRP in February 2025 to roughly 500 XRP today, a decline exceeding 91%. Fees are a proxy for transaction volume; the steep drop indicates far fewer users are transacting, and those who do are sending smaller amounts. This erosion of demand aligns with a broader trend of reduced liquidity and lower daily active addresses.
Glassnode’s historical analysis further contextualizes the present crisis. In November of last year, the firm reported that only 58.5% of the circulating supply was in profit, the lowest share since November 2024 when XRP hovered around $0.53. At that time, 41.5% of the supply—equivalent to about 26.5 billion XRP—stood at a loss, even though the token was trading close to $2.15. The persistence of such a high loss‑bearing proportion indicates that many holders have not yet realized gains or adjusted positions, leaving the network vulnerable to further price swings.
For Ripple, the implications are multifold. First, the sharp drop in fee revenue threatens the sustainability of the XRP Ledger’s validator incentives, potentially affecting network security and decentralization. Second, a high concentration of loss‑bearing holders may drive a negative feedback loop: as prices fall, margin calls and forced liquidations could accelerate the decline. Third, institutional confidence may waver, especially if large holders begin to exit en masse, eroding the token’s credibility as a reliable bridge asset.
Despite these challenges, some analysts point to structural resilience. XRP’s unique consensus mechanism and low transaction costs remain attractive for cross‑border payments, and Ripple’s strategic partnerships with banks could provide a stabilizing backstop. However, the current on‑chain data suggests that any upside will be contingent on a broader market turnaround or a renewed regulatory clarity that restores investor confidence.
Looking ahead, market participants should monitor several key indicators. The Realized Profit‑to‑Loss Ratio will be a leading sign of whether loss‑taking is easing or intensifying. Transaction fee volumes and average transaction sizes will reveal whether users are returning to the network. Finally, sentiment analysis of social media and institutional filings may provide early warnings of large‑scale exits.
In summary, XRP’s on‑chain metrics paint a picture of a network under stress, with profitability squeezed and transaction demand in retreat. While Ripple’s underlying technology remains robust, the current environment demands vigilance from both the company and its community as they navigate the path toward potential recovery.
