In a decisive market assessment, Standard Chartered’s chief digital asset researcher, Geoff Kendrick, declared that the cryptocurrency sector has reached the bottom of its most recent cycle. Bitcoin’s slide to roughly $59,000— a 53% decline from its October peak of $126,000— was identified as the nadir, signalling a potential turning point for the broader market.
At the time of Kendrick’s commentary, Bitcoin had already rebounded to approximately $64,000, marking a 5% gain over the preceding week. The bank maintains a bullish year‑end target of $100,000 for the digital asset, a projection first released in February.
Kendrick cites two primary catalysts for the anticipated recovery. The first is the historic Nasdaq debut of Elon Musk’s SpaceX, which priced its $75 billion IPO at $135 per share under the ticker SPCX on June 12. The shares surged beyond the IPO price, gaining about 20% on the first trading day. According to Kendrick, the IPO siphoned liquidity from the crypto market as investors liquidated positions to secure allocations for SpaceX shares. With the IPO now live, the selling pressure that had strained Bitcoin may ease, allowing the price to climb.
The second catalyst is geopolitical: a potential U.S.–Iran peace agreement could ease supply concerns for global oil markets. A reduction in oil prices would likely temper U.S. Treasury yields, which have been dragging on risk assets such as crypto by making risk‑free debt more attractive. West Texas Intermediate crude fell about 1.5% to roughly $85–$86 per barrel, reflecting the market’s sensitivity to Middle East developments. However, the peace narrative remains fragile. President Trump’s comments on Truth Social about the deal’s authenticity have added uncertainty to the macro outlook.
To validate his bullish stance, Kendrick outlines three confirmation signals. First, he is monitoring BlackRock’s Strategy for a new Bitcoin purchase announcement, as the firm’s buying history has historically signaled institutional demand. Second, he anticipates a reversal of negative net inflows for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have experienced significant outflows since mid‑May. Third, he expects the market to sustain a trend of higher highs and higher lows, indicating a solidified bounce.
These signals, if borne out, would reinforce Standard Chartered’s conviction that the crypto market is emerging from a trough. The confluence of a major IPO, geopolitical easing, and renewed institutional interest could create a favorable environment for Bitcoin and other digital assets to regain momentum. Investors and analysts alike will be watching closely for these developments as they assess the resilience and potential upside of the crypto ecosystem.
